Issues
Heirs and glimpses of the future in Saudi Arabia
Royal family, religion and foreign affairs
Will King Fahd's succession be 'gentle' and well organized?
The successor to King Fahd has already been chosen. Thus, the transition of power to Crown Prince Abdullah will be smooth and without any complications. Among the senior members of the royal family, a consensus exists on the succession issue; because a Crown Prince was selected by King Fahd, there is no room for disputes.
Do you think the new Princes' generation will take over power from their uncles and fathers?
At this stage, a handover of power to the next generation is not expected, although this is an issue that will be confronted in the near future. One can expect a transition to the next generation in the not-too-distant future. Because the princes are younger and enjoyed a more formal education than that of their predecessors, they will be more likely to address local issues and concerns. Moreover, they will be better able to sympathise with the younger generations and their desire to see reforms. Nevertheless, the state's basic law issued in 1996 qualified the grandsons of the Kingdom founder King Abdulaziz to rule the state as long as they possess the required qualifications; thus, any future ruler, even from the younger generation, will be unlikely to relinquish the family’s position.
Is Prince Abdallah free to make independent political decisions?
Important decisions in the Kingdom are always adopted via the collective participation of all senior members of the ruling family as well as some members of the government from out side the family. Thus Crown Prince Abdullah is free to make decisions, although he still needs to form a consensus to make sure that his policies have the support of other key elements within the Saudi political structure. That said, it must be stressed that CP Abdullah’s influence is significant and that he will be able to push many of his ideas and initiatives forward.
Some members of the Royal Family oppose Prince Abdallah's reforms. For what reasons?
Given the fact that the Saudi ruling family is a rather large family, there is bound to be a wide variety of views expressed within it. The Saudi state currently finds itself under a great deal of pressure both internally and externally, especially regarding how to combine the traditional system of rule with the requirements of the modern age. Some within the ruling family advocate a more subtle approach to reform that would preserve the stability of the ruling system. Overall, there is a consensus that reform is necessary; the debate is rather on the path to and the speed and priorities of reform. What is required is a smooth, gradual reformation. It is fair to say, then, that all members of the ruling family fully agree on the need for reforms of the system, but as in any other group there are probably different views as to how to approach the issue.
Some observers/analysts think that, apart from the Royal Family and the Islamists, there is no real alternative for power. What is your opinion?
The Saudi political system is a system in transition. Given the fact that the Al-Saud family and the conservative Islamists represent key pillars of the system, it is natural that they are seen as the only candidates. This, however, is too narrow a view and does not reflect the fact that even within these pillars there is a variety of views and positions. The liberal camp is struggling against the status quo in this regard and has found it difficult to generate popular support for its stance. That said, even the liberal camp is finding its voice and cannot completely be ignored or sidelined in the overall political debate.
Do you think that American pressure against Riyadh will decrease?
There are numerous issues in which US-Saudi cooperation will be crucial if there is to be a degree of stability in the region; the issues of terrorism and Iraq are just two items in this regard. Given the fact that the current US administration has placed a great deal of importance on its so called democracy agenda, there is bound to be continuous criticism of the Saudi system, particularly from the Congress. However, practical cooperation can be maintained and even increased over the coming period; Saudi cooperation in tourism, oil policies, the issue of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the Iraq conflict are more vital to US interests than ever before. Thus, the Saudi-US relationship will continue to be characterized by both approaches.
Will the progressive reforming trends in the Middle East and the Gulf in particular instigate further or rather subdue violent opposition and terror groups, and why?
There are misperceptions that need to be cleared up here. First and foremost, the current reform process is not a fad that will disappear in the near future. Reform is here to stay and these trends will characterize the region’s development over the coming years. Second, there are always sectors or individuals of society who oppose any type of change or who have their own political agenda to follow no matter what the circumstances are. Thus, as reform continues to open the societies in the region, terrorism will be a phenomenon that in one way or another will accompany the process.
Could the ideological ground upon which terror attacks are carried out in Saudi Arabia ever be eliminated or tamed?
There is no reason to believe that terrorism will be a continual part of the process of Saudi development. Although terrorists are both anti-reform and anti-government, government measures to eliminate terrorism will pave the way for the reform process. One must also note that terrorism has its roots in a number of issues within the Kingdom; as these issues are addressed, the appeal to join radical causes will wane. That is not to say, however, that all the necessary issues are being addressed or that a connection exists between the Islamic nature of the Saudi kingdom and terrorism.
On what ideological ground, related to domestic policies, are terror attacks carried out in the Kingdom?
Terrorism within the Kingdom has its roots in a number of factors ranging from the interaction between the deeply conservative nature of the state and the modern forces pulling the state into a direction of change, as well as social components such as declining economic opportunities, rising unemployment and a lack of alternatives for the youth. There is also the issue of foreign interference in the region and how this impacts the policies of the state. Terrorism is a result of all these pressures and cannot be narrowed down to just one phenomenon.
-- Dr A. Sager
Chairman of the Gulf Research Centre
Information gathered by Chiara Sulmoni, Research Assistant
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- Origin CERMAM
- http://www.cermam.org/en/logs/dossier/heirs_and_glimpses_of_the_futu/
- Publié le 23 February 2007