Issues
Hormuz: a Strategic Chokepoint
If the Persian Gulf is the energetical heart of our world, then the Strait of Hormuz is its Aorta. The Gulf Countries hold 61.1% of the world’s proven reserves and 40% of the world’s gas reserves. 30% of the petroleum produced comes from the region as well as 12% of the world’s gas production. Ghawar is the biggest super giant oil field in the World, and it is located in Saudi Arabia and the South Pars/Asalouyeh is the largest natural gas field, shared by Iran and Qatar. The Persian Gulf plays a dominant role in the international energy arena.
It plans to preserve this position by creating new investments, exploiting new deposits and building additional oil and gas pipelines. Between 2005 and 2006, the construction of pipelines doubled from 3’742 miles to 6’645 miles. All this oil and gas is mainly exported by sea. For that, huge tankers called VLCC (Very Large Crude Carriers) and ULCC (Ultra Large Crude Carriers) are employed. Everyday hundreds of these ships enter the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, congesting the Gulf even more.
The specificity of Hormuz is its vulnerability. At its narrowest, the Strait measures 32 miles wide. However the Iranian territorial waters are much to shallow for the navigation of huge tankers and these must transit between the Quoin Islands and Ras Dobbah of the shore of Oman. At its narrowest the shipping lanes measure 1 mile wide in each direction. But there are further narrow passages to pass before gaining the Gulf, ships must still transit between the Islands of Tonb-Kuchek, of Tonb e-Bozorg and Abu Musa. These three islands were annexed by the Iranians in 1971.
Everyday, 17,4 million barrels of petrol pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the equivalent of 33,1% of the petroleum trade. This critically important yet little known place is the most important chokepoint of the world, as sinking a few ships is enough to block it.
Evidently such a strategic place remains under tight security. The British controlled the Strait till their withdrawal in 1971; following which the US stepped into their shoes, relying on the Iranian Shah to preserve stability in the region. But the Iranian Revolution changed the balance of power by placing a hostile regime at the Gulf’s entrance. Since then, the Americans have established a naval base in Bahrain that hosts the 5th Fleet, another military base in Qatar, two nuclear airplane carriers patrol the waters of the Persian Gulf and a third one in ready at hand in the Arabian Sea. We can add to this the joint military exercises in the Gulf between European Powers, Canda, New Zealand, China and other countries, often interpreted as a warning to the Islamic Republic.
Nevertheless, the Iranians have threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz were its nuclear facilities to be attacked. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the Americans during a speech made on June 4th 2004 “If the Americans make a wrong move towards Iran, the shipment of energy will definitely face danger, and the Americans would not be able to protect energy supplies in the region”. The Iranians have the means to execute this threat. Bander Abbas is a military port just of the Strait and military bases protect the two Tonb islands and Abu Musa. The Iranians recently bought surface to surface missiles from the Chinese that can sink tankers, and from North Korea they bought small submarines. With its arms industry, Iran possesses a complete military arsenal, and could wage guerrilla styled war-fare in the Strait. Closing Hormuz doesn’t seem difficult.
However, closing the Strait of Hormuz, be it for a period of two weeks, would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global economy. The first to suffer would be the Gulf States; unable to export their oil, their main source of income would disappear. For Saudi Arabia, the losses would amount to 70% to 80% of its revenues or 800 Million$/day. Qatar would lose 60% of its revenues and Oman, 40 % of its GDP. For Iraq, the losses would represent 40% of the State income or 137 Million$/day. The Iranians themselves would be the worst of as they would be unable to import the refined petrol they need. The US, Europe and Asia in particular would have to face an energy shortage such as has never been seen before. The price of oil, already high today, would explode. Without petroleum, globalisation as we know it today could come to a stand still. In the end, we would face the worst economic crisis ever.
Measures have been considered to avoid such a scenario. There are alternate ways to export oil from the Persian Gulf. An oil pipeline crosses Saudi Arabia from East to West, merging into the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu’al Bahr. It has a capacity of 5,5 mb/day and is currently under-utilized. But other pipelines such as the Transarabian Pipeline connecting Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea have been shut down due to the Iraqi insurgency. But all together this is not enough to compensate the loss of 17 mb/day that normally transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Further more, no country today has the capacity to increase their production to such a level as would compensate for the Persian Gulf oil shortage.
A more realistic solution is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. All the member countries of the IEA are obliged to have strategic reserves which could supply their country for 90 days in the eventuality of a disruption in the supply of global oil. Other countries like India and China are also starting to stock up reserves. But this solution is only viable in the short term.
The best solution remains the military option: using force to prevent the closure of the Strait. This seems to be the US’ intention as they are said to be preparing a “shock and awe” attack to prevent the Iranians from deploying their army. The Americans would be willing to employ overpowering means to eliminate not only the Iranian nuclear power plants, but also their power to retaliate by destroying their armed forces and infrastructure. Plans to take hold of the oil rich Khurzestan region in Iran have also been considered. The French share this point of view. In January 2008, they signed an agreement with The UAE that would allow them to build a naval base just off the Strait of Hormuz.
The closure of Hormuz would be suicidal for the Iranians. Not only would it drag the global economy into the worst crisis ever, but the Mullah’s regime itself would probably not survive. Till then Iran is content formulating threats which make the price of oil go up, and keeping the International Community worried. The Americans remain constantly alert as the recent confrontation in January in the Strait between a US Ship and an Iranian ship shows.
Ines Ward
Research Assistant Trainee at CERMAM
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- Origin CERMAM
- http://www.cermam.org/en/logs/dossier/hormuz_a_strategic_chokepoint/
- Publié le 6 March 2008