Issues
Iran's new president
President Ahmadinejad
Considering Washington's influence on the calls to reform in the Middle East, is Iran's new President's stand towards the United States tenable in the long run? How will it reflect on European Union policies?
Given the high price of oil at the moment, the new administration in Iran has a considerable economic cushion to be able to support itself for some time. But of course the viability of any administration in Iran or elsewhere depends on both the activities and policies of the administration and in this case the policies of the Bush administration. To my mind, there is not much the Bush administration can do at the moment aside from exert threats of force (and perhaps its use). This will only serve to consolidate the position of the Ahmadinejad presidency as it will resort to populism and nationalism to excite popular support for the regime as a whole. The real influence on the long term viability of the new administration and its impact on the regime is the administration itself. If Ahmadinejad concentrates on those policies he campaigned on (economic justice) and does not pursue social and cultural restrictions (along with political repression), he stands a better chance (indeed perhaps a good one) of consolidating broader support for his administration. Otherwise domestic tensions will increase.
On the domestic front, is this election likely to intensify class struggle? Where could that lead eventually?
What is most curious about this election is the wholly populist and indeed socialist character of the campaign. It would not be too far to argue that the language of class struggle was used. The difficulty must now be how to reconcile the campaign with the reality of government. If he fulfils his promises then he must tackle the corrupt mercantile elites which form a substantial pillar of the regime as well as his own supporters. The logic of such a policy would be the ultimate dismantling of the political settlement built by Rafsanjani post 1989 and ironically achieve what Khatami had been trying to do albeit in a more gentle and indirect manner! The reality is that Ahmadinejad is likely to use the extra oil money to support subsidies and then to target some key members of the mercantile elite in the same way Putin has done in Russia. Of course this in itself will need to be done delicately. Iran is not Russia.
Considering the balance of power within the Iranian government, will the new President be able to pursue all aspects of his political program?
I think the answer to this has been outlined in the previous answers. It will be difficult!
Is President Ahmadinejad really welcomed by the conservative ruling elite?
This is the real conundrum! The decision to swing support behind Ahmadinejad was taken quite late and as a result of the realisation that Ahmadinejad was connecting with the common people. It was not so much an appreciation of the message, rather recognition of political realities. To my mind the conservative elite has scored a tactical victory which may soon be seen to be a strategic blunder. To take but one example: to achieve his goals he will need to tackle the enormous Foundation of the Oppressed, but this organization is well known to be unaccountable and opaque and operated by the very conservative elites apparently challenged by Ahmadinejad!
-- Ali Ansari
Reader at the University of St Andrews
Information gathered by Chiara Sulmoni, Research Assistant
Permanent link to this entry (permalink)
- Origin CERMAM
- http://www.cermam.org/en/logs/dossier/irans_new_president/
- Publié le 11 July 2005