Points of View
A Fragile Peace in Lebanon
Early May 2008, Lebanon is once again taken in the midst of a civil conflict in which regional powers try to impose their influence in the country; in which the Lebanese are killing each other; in which religious divides govern the rules of the game. Did anything at all change since 1990? Is Lebanon incapable of governing itself with no external help? Is it prevented from doing so by self interested neighbors?
On May 7th, violent clashes between the Hezbollah and Saad Hariri’s Mostaqbal movement broke out in Beirut. Two days later the Hezbollah had taken control of West Beirut. The fighting then moved towards the north of the country and the Shouff mountains that overhead Beirut, which makes them a strategic point to control. The Shouff, where the fighting between the opposition and the Druze militia of Walid Jumblatt intensified over a few days, also holds a very specific advantage for the Hezbollah: the road to Syria. Controlling this road means securing arms and munitions supplies for the Hezbollah. In addition to the street violence shaking Lebanon, the main roads, as well as the port and airport were closed, preventing circulation in and out of the country.
Hezbollah, a radical Shia group backed by Syria and Iran, emerged in Lebanon in the 80s, partly in reaction to the Israeli threat. Ever since then, the movement grew in importance and popularity; it now can rely on strong popular support, and maintains several seats in the parliament. The tensions between Saad Hariri’s majority and Hezbollah have kept on growing for several years now. Besides, Lebanon has been unstable for a while, weakened by internal as well as external tensions. A multi-confessional country, Lebanon has never really recovered from its civil war from 1975 to 1990, and old hostilities between Christans and Muslims, Sunnis and Shia, still divide the country. The role of Syria in Lebanese domestic affairs keeps on weakening the country as well. Since its withdrawal in 2005, political assassinations keep increasing, eliminating one after the other every single potential threat to the Syrian supremacy in the region. Since September 2007, the presidential elections have already been postponed 19 times. Israel too, seems to be keen on preventing Lebanon to stand strong and stable; the July 2006 war, destroying all the major infrastructures of Lebanon, brought back the country ten years behind. With the recent crisis, it is now the ghost of the civil war that is vividly resurfacing.
The confrontations in Beirut as well as in the rest of the country were triggered after the government had declared firing the airport security chief, close to the Hezbollah, as well as the banning of the telecommunication network of the group. Given the Hezbollah's reaction, the Lebanese government decided a week later to abrogate those two controversial measures in order to restore domestic stability, which in a way granted a degree of victory to the opposition. Following those concessions from the government, the fighting stopped and the roads, port and airport of Beirut re-opened.
The international community unanimously condemned the violent reaction from Hezbollah to the government’s measures. Similarly, surrounding Arab countries issued statements reproving the group’s reaction. On May 14th, a delegation headed by the Qatari Prime Minister went to Beirut in order to find a reasonable solution to the crisis, which would satisfy all the concerned parties. Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor Al-Thani, Prime Minister of Qatar and the Arab League's envoy, accompanied by the Arab League’s secretary, General Amr Moussa, met successively with Fouad Siniora, Lebanese Prime Minister, Nabih Berri, Chief of the Parliament and Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Secretary General.
The leaders of the different parties then left to Doha to discuss the three key issues that could untangle to crisis and restore stability in Lebanon: the disarming of Hezbollah, the presidential elections and the creation of a national unity government.
The negotiations did not go smoothly from the beginning but all parties finally agreed on a compromise. A president was elected, and the opposition managed to obtain a blocking minority in the parliament.
Although an accord was signed, peace in Lebanon still seems fragile. If Lebanon were to go back to instability, it would probably be much worse than in the past, and aggravated by 18 years of underlying tensions. The question that is now at the forefront of Lebanese politics is whether the Doha accords’ solution will actually succeed in establishing the political and social peace Lebanon has been expecting for so long.
Dalia Bahous
Research Assistant
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- Origin CERMAM
- http://www.cermam.org/en/logs/vue/a_fragile_peace_in_lebanon/
- Publié le 2 June 2008