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Points of View

Presidential Elections in Egypt: EL Bardei conditions: A Hope for Change?

A special statement was the subject of various reactions in Egypt. It is the statement of Mohamed El Baradei, the prominent Egyptian diplomat and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency in which he affirmed its acceptance to stand for the Egyptian presidential election of 2011. This statement, if it has caused a feeling of joy for much of the opposition and especially the youngest among it, on the contrary, it caused a real concern for the political regime. The many articles written in the official newspaper "Al Ahram", denouncing and criticizing El Baradei statement affirm this fact. In this context, we will try in this paper to analyze the issues this statement tigers and the possibility of its realization in Egypt.

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In recent months, many voices have risen strongly and visibility, requiring the presentation of El Baradei in the next presidential elections in 2011 even if he had not thought about such a step. These votes came mainly from two categories: 1) The political opposition and the intellectual elite in Egypt. 2) The youth that are part of the opposed political parties or opposition movements at the head of which "the movement of April 6," or internet activists such as bloggers and "Facebook” activists. Moreover, a large amount of groups on "Facebook" were created to support El Baradei Candidacy, such as, the one called "El Baradei candidate in 2011 presidential elections”, and whose number has reached up to the time of publication of this article, about 20 000 people. Namely, that what might be called "The Facebook politics" that became very famous in Egypt, especially after the creation of a group that has requested the establishment of a general strike in the 6th of April 2008 in solidarity with the Workers in Mahala El Kobra, and following to which the "movement of the April 6" has just emerged.

n this context that EL Baradei has submitted two statements of special importance to "Al Masry Al Youm" newspaper in Egypt. In the first he said he agreed to stand for presidential elections of 2011 and in the second, more revolutionary, he said he would not present himself as a candidate under the tutelage of any opposition parties but rather as an independent. Worth noting that the Article 76 of the Egyptian constitution has stipulated that candidates for election must necessarily be a member of the High Committee of the parties for at least a year before the presidential election time, the party must have a legal existence at least in the five years preceding the election and must has received 5% of the seats in at least in the two assemblies prior to elections to the presidential elections. Thus, El Baradei declaration means that an amendment of the constitution which put draconian conditions for the presentation of independent candidates should be established. This is what he actually expressed in his second statement: "I am for a peaceful action to change the constitution. The change could occur only through a popular will. I will work with the people. If people come to change the constitution, I would be at its service. "This statement even if weird, it has a historical importance for Egypt as it embodies the possibility of the emergence of a change, in a period in which the ghost of "succession" is increasingly growing. This situation was confirmed with no possible alternative; because of the political power control on all political life aspects on the one hand, and because of the lack of credible figure within the opposition on the other. But does that mean that EL Baradei is a truly popular candidate who could present a challenge to the “succession” project or even to a possible candidacy of the current President Mubarak? The answer is yes and no. Certainly, EL Baradei has all the essential assets that make him a potential candidate: 1 - It is a personality that has an international recognition and that has already received the Nobel Prize. Hence, the exercise of repressive acts against him, not as Ayman Nour, would be too difficult to establish. 2 - At the domestic level, it is a personality with a good reputation, mainly because of its strong stance against the U.S. in the war against Iraq. Moreover, it presents the image of change not only against the political regime but also against the political opposition which is incredible, even in its own eyes, especially with the limits that were placed on its action. Surely, El Baradei with his claim of a constitutional change has put his finger on one of the main problems hampering the political life in Egypt, which is Article 76, however, a popular pressure for a constitutional change is far to settle in Egypt, at least at present. The reason is that the ordinary Egyptian citizen is nowadays entirely apolitical as it has remained for decades away from politics. Even, the many social protests that have invaded Egypt since 2006, protested only for economic and social reasons, the political side was then kept away. Thus, in that situation, considering that a change can take place through popular initiatives would be a great illusion. Furthermore, El Baradei could not be considered in any way as a popular candidate, as the demand for its participation in the elections was only an elitist claim. Coupled with that, before and during the elections the capacity of the regime remains wide. At the regime's ability to crackdown on supporters of El Baradei who have already begun to establish a popular campaign for supporting him, the political power still have the ability to buy electoral votes. Moreover, the power can closely control the radio and TV during the elections. The cosmetic 2005 elections affirm that fact.

In this context, two scenarios for change can take place, as mentioned by the Egyptian political analyst Amr Elshobaki: The first is that the Egyptian establishments agree on El Baradei, a situation which can result to its imposition to the National Democratic Party (NDP), in the next election. Thus, unlike candidates of the political opposition, El Baradei comes fom the heart of the state which might have its decisive impact on a substantial portion of these reformist wing within the ruling party and within state. The second is the presentation of El Baradei as president for a transition period in which a constitutional change would take place. This scenario was also presented by the great Egyptian journalist Mohamed Haeckel, where he affirmed the need to establish a council that would preside over the country for a transitional period and would protect the nascent constitution. The second scenario appears to be somewhat romantic since no real pressure could force the regime to make concessions. However, the experiences of previous democratic transition have shown that the regime would accept to make concessions only if it is forced to do so. This condition is not present in Egypt at least now.

Thus, in this critical period of the Egyptian history, with the return of El Baradei, one could say that the presidential campaign has already started in Egypt, however we needs time to see the result: Will it be a consolidation of the status quo or a transition to an historic opening?

Nadine ABDALLA
Phd researcher at 'Institut d'Etude Politique (IEP) de Grenoble, France, Research Internship at 'Institut d'Etude Politique de Lausanne, Lausanne University (Unil) and Reseacher assistant associates to CERMAM

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  • Origin CERMAM
  • http://www.cermam.org/en/logs/vue/presidential_elections_in_egyp/
  • Publié le 17 December 2009