Points of View
Syria: a Major actor in the Middle East
It seems too good to be true: an agreement in Lebanon with Hezbollah, the confirmation of negotiations between Israel and Syria and a (thorny) dialogue about a potential truce with the Palestinian Hamas. Bizarrely, neither Teheran nor Washington prevented those three events to unfold. Besides, each of the intermediaries is an American ally: Qatar (for Lebanon), Turkey (for Syria), and Egypt (for Hamas). How can this sudden keen interest for dialogue be explained? Is a new deal being set up in the Middle East? Analysis of Hasni Abidi, director of the Study and Research Center for the Arab and Mediterranean world, in Geneva.
It is hard to believe in a coincidence. Are those negotiations part of a greater plan?
Those three measures are definitely linked, even though I do not believe in a real regional peace plan. The current context is favourable to agreements between opposed parties. Syria in particular, has nothing to lose and everything to win. The United States is busy electing a President, the Israeli Prime Minister is entangled in a corruption scandal and the Hezbollah just achieved a successful show of strength in Lebanon. Damascus is in a strong position to negotiate the restitution of the Golan Heights (occupied since 1967 by the Hebrew state), like Egypt formerly reclaimed the Sinai in 1967.
The negotiations between Israel and Syria were confirmed on the same day as the Lebanese agreement was. What links both events?
There is a fundamental link between both events. Understand that Hezbollah’s victory in Lebanon has changed the regional order. No one imagined the Shia militia ever capable of taking control of Beirut in only a few hours. The anti-Syrian majority got worried in front of such military power and offered them the veto right they had been asking for. This last measure locks the Lebanese government, and represents the consecration of the Syrian and Iranian influence in the Cedar country. Now, Damascus does not have to fear the investigation on the assassination of Rafic Hariri, the former Lebanese Prime Minister. The Syrian president, Bachar el-Assad, now dreams to retrieve the Golan to strengthen his authority within a regime in the midst of a crisis, and to eventually rebuild ties with the United States. On the other side, the Israeli Ehud Olmert seeks to secure its border with Lebanon and appease the tensions in Gaza. That, or Damascus could ‘reason’ with Hezbollah and Hamas....
A kamikaze from Gaza, got himself blown up yesterday at a check point. Does Hamas want a truce?
Yes, this is the sign that an agreement is near: the radical branch of the Islamist movement is trying to undermine it.
Why does Iran let it happen?
Iranian diplomacy is rather contradictive. Teheran succeeded in Lebanon. It became a key actor in Iraq (the rebel Shia leader, Moqtada Sadr just let the army enter the territory he controls). The Islamic Republic clearly influences Hamas. Its goal has finally been reached: to become THE regional power. Unavoidable for war as well as for peace. Yet, nothing is permanent in the small arrangements of the moment. At the slightest threat against Iran, violence will recur.
The United States is not exactly pleased with these changes. Why not oppose them?
I see Washington’s approval as a sign of exhaustion. The Americans are entangled in Afghanistan and Iraq. Israel’s war in Lebanon was a total failure. George Bush put himself under pressure to reach an Arab-Israeli peace agreement by the end of his term. An American veto against the Lebanese accords and the on-going negotiations would be counter-productive for the US.
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- Origin CERMAM
- http://www.cermam.org/en/logs/vue/syria_a_major_actor_in_the_mid/
- Publié le 30 May 2008